China's phosphate fertilizer exports fell almost to zero in 2026 amid sulfur shortage

Argus Media has analyzed China's phosphate fertilizer exports, with the results reported by Western Producer. In 2025, China exported 5.3 million t, while in 2026 exports virtually stopped. The main reason is a shortage of sulfur, which has left Chinese producers supplying only the domestic market.

Lin Wang, senior China consultant at Argus, explains that Beijing regulates the domestic fertilizer market through export policy and restricts exports of phosphates and sulfuric acid. According to her, phosphate fertilizer production in the country is now focused "exclusively on domestic demand".

Next year, Argus expects a slight increase in Chinese phosphate exports, to about 2 million t. A further recovery is possible once sulfur supplies become more stable. The situation with urea is different: in 2026, China exported 6–7 million t and is likely to export the same amount in 2027. According to Argus, this has helped lower urea prices since the start of the war between the US and Iran.

According to the Argus index, phosphate fertilizer affordability for farmers remains at its worst level in recent years. Without Chinese supplies, import-dependent countries are hit harder. In Brazil, for example, MAP, SSP and TSP production capacities are already idle due to the sulfur shortage.