Wheat prices on US exchange fall 12% in a month

On Friday, 23 October, wheat on the US exchange closed at $ 6.25 per bushel, or $ 229 per tonne. A month earlier it traded at $ 7.1 per bushel ($ 260 per tonne), a decline of about 12%.

The decline may be explained by expectations of a larger harvest this season. According to the October forecast of the International Grains Council, major exporting countries will produce 396.1 million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year. This is above previous estimates.

Shipments from Russia and Ukraine are also rising. Andrey Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical centre, estimates that Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, could export 2.8 million tonnes in October, compared with 2.1 million tonnes in August. Ukraine is using new routes in place of blocked shipments through Black Sea ports. SovEcon forecasts that it will export 15.6 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, compared with 14 million tonnes a year earlier. On the Russian domestic market, wheat rose by 300 roubles over the week to 9,300 roubles per tonne (National Commodity Exchange, CPT Novorossiysk), returning to month-ago levels.

In Kazakhstan, according to the Eurasian Trading System exchange, sellers are asking 97,000 tenge per tonne for class 3 wheat with 25–26% gluten (at the elevator, including VAT), and 118,000 tenge per tonne for hi-pro wheat with 29–30% gluten. No deals were made at these prices last week.