IGC: Kazakhstan's wheat harvest falls 3.3 million tonnes short of last year

In its October report, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimated Kazakhstan's total grain harvest at 21.5 million tonnes, including 16 million tonnes of wheat. A year earlier, the IGC put the wheat harvest at 19.3 million tonnes. That means wheat output was 3.3 million tonnes (17.1%) lower. Summer weather was the cause, with a long spell of heat and a shortage of moisture. The Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan gives a higher figure: by its data, 23 million tonnes of grain of all types had been threshed by mid-October.

According to IGC estimates, wheat carry-over stocks at the start of the 2026/27 season stood at 3.5 million tonnes. Together with the new crop and expected imports of 0.6 million tonnes, total supply will reach 20 million tonnes. Domestic needs (food, processing and feed) will take 8 million tonnes, and 9.3 million tonnes will be exported. Another 2.8 million tonnes will remain as carry-over stocks.

Exports will be well below last year's record of 11.8 million tonnes. However, they are in line with the long-term average and with railway capacity. IGC experts believe the harvest is enough for both domestic needs and exports. That said, Kazakh grain faces competition from Russian wheat in Central Asian markets this season.

In the major exporting countries, the IGC expects a 2026/27 wheat crop of 396.1 million tonnes, compared with 437.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, a decline of 9.5%. World wheat prices are currently 31% higher than a year ago: on 16 October, the US exchange futures price was $6.6 per bushel ($242 per tonne).